Timeline of Coincidences: How a Detective Fed the Media a Lie
Introduction
When former homicide detective Ron Iddles began publicly discussing the “old crook’s tip” about Mr. Cruel in 2019, it seemed like a new lead in a long-cold case. But look closer, and the timeline is riddled with coincidences — and disturbing context.
This post examines the strange intersections between Iddles’ statements, his long-standing ties to the force, the activities of known criminal Alf Gay, and the concurrent corruption investigations unfolding inside Victoria Police. It’s not just about what was said. It’s about when it was said — and why.
Ron Iddles
Ron Iddles is Australia’s most celebrated homicide detective. With a career spanning decades, he is often portrayed as the gold standard in policing. But even gold can tarnish.
In the early 2000s, Iddles says he was tasked with reviewing the Karmein Chan case. Around this same time, he says he had a friendly catch-up with an old crook named Alf Gay.
And during that chat, Alf allegedly dropped a bombshell: he knew who Mr. Cruel was.
Timeline of Coincidences
➡️ 1989 – Alfred Gay is arrested for methamphetamine trafficking by Detective Ron Iddles. No conviction or sentencing ever recorded. Gay is released on bail with no opposition.
➡️ 1991 – Operation Chances begins — Victoria Police’s first precursor chemical strategy. This marks the start of chemical informant operations, forming the foundation of future corruption investigations.
➡️ 1991 – Karmein Chan is abducted. Graffiti left on the family’s car reads:
“Asian Drug Dealer. Payback. More to Come. Anon.”
➡️ Early 2000s – Ron Iddles is tasked with reviewing the Karmein Chan case. Around the same time, he meets with Alf Gay — who suddenly “recalls” that his late friend Norman Lee was Mr. Cruel.
➡️ 2000–2001 – Operation HEMI and Operation CEJA expose deep corruption in Victoria Police’s drug squad — including the controlled use of informants in chemical diversion programs.
➡️ June 2019 – Ron Iddles appears on Australian True Crime Live and mentions the Mr. Cruel tip publicly for the first time.
➡️ June 2019 – Iddles submits his signed statement to the Royal Commission into the Management of Police Informants (RCMPI).
[The statement is dated the same month he revives the Alf Gay narrative in public]
➡️ November 2020 – Iddles appears on the Melbourne Marvels podcast, repeating the Alf Gay story — just as the Commission prepares to publish its final report.
➡️ November 2020 – May 17, 2022 – Timeframe named in Iddles’ 2025 lawsuit against Victoria Police, alleging phone taps and a smear campaign. This overlaps directly with his renewed media push of the Mr. Cruel story.
➡️ May 1, 2022 – Andrew Rule publishes his Herald Sun article promoting Alf Gay’s Mr. Cruel claim — within weeks of the alleged smear window endin
Coincidence #1: The 1989 Arrest —Methamphetamine Trafficking
In 1989, Alf Gay was arrested at his home in Bittern for trafficking methamphetamine, alongside two other men — one of them the son of a prominent Melbourne barrister. The arresting officer? Detective Ron Iddles.
This was no ordinary arrest.
Alf Gay was already a serious uunderworld circles. A former member of the Painters and Dockers union, he had a reputation as a respected old-school crook. And years earlier, in 1974, he was convicted of taking part in the $289,000 MSS robbery — at the time the largest cash heist in Victorian history. Justice Kaye sentenced him to 12 years’ imprisonment, with a non-parole period of 10.
But after the 1989 arrest, something strange happens.
🔷️ No conviction.
🔷️ No media coverage.
🔷️ No opposition to bail — by Iddles.
🔷️ No record of any sentencing.
This has led to the serious question. Did Alf Gay become an informant?
He had the connections. He had the credibility on the street. And he had a serious charge hanging over his head.
Only two years later, in 1991, Victoria Police would begin Operation Chances, a precursor chemical distribution scheme that relied on criminal informants to supply materials for methamphetamine production — often under secret agreements with police handlers.
If Alf was involved in that pipeline — or knew others who were — he may have cut a deal. And if he was protected after that, it could explain why Ron Iddles continued to trust him in the years that followed, even describing their early 2000s meeting as just a “friendly chat.”
Coincidence #2: Operation Chances – 1991
In 1991, just months after Alf Gay's methamphetamine trafficking arrest, Victoria Police launched Operation Chances — the beginning of a covert program aimed at disrupting the manufacture of illicit drugs through the sale of precursor chemicals. This would later evolve into the infamous Controlled Chemical Delivery (CCD) strategy, in which police supplied known drug producers with the very ingredients needed for methamphetamine and ecstasy production — all while gathering intelligence and making selective arrests.
According to Peter Kos, a former investigator interviewed by journalist Adam Shand, Operation Chances was the foundation of what would become a long-running chemical distribution operation, one that would eventually explode into scandal during Operation HEMI and the CEJA Taskforce investigations a decade later.
Why does this matter? Because the timing aligns with known criminals being turned into informants or used as middlemen in these operations — often with little to no formal oversight or paper trail. It also directly intersects with the period of heightened drug activity and surveillance in Victoria. And Alf Gay, a convicted armed robber and methamphetamine trafficker, was well placed — and well connected — to be of use.
Was Alf Gay quietly co-opted into this program? If so, was that his ticket out of jail time in 1989? And could it explain why, years later, Ron Iddles still spoke of him with deference — trusting his so-called “bombshell” about Mr. Cruel without question?
🗞️ Media Note (1993):
A report from the South China Morning Post, 1993 quoted police sources suggesting Mr. Cruel “may have had inside information.”
Coincidence #3: Mr. Cruel’s Graffiti — “Asian Drug Dealer. Payback. More to Come. Anon.”
When 13-year-old Karmein Chan was abducted from her Templestowe home in April 1991, the scene left behind was chilling. Spray-painted on the family’s vehicle were the words:
"Asian Drug Dealer. Payback. More to Come. Anon."
At the time, this message was considered a red herring. Police investigated Karmein’s father, Mr. Chan, and found no links to criminal activity. He was a respected restaurateur. And Phyllis Chan, Karmein’s mother, became the face of public appeals — a heartbroken parent whose televised pleas were etched into the nation’s memory.
Authorities ultimately concluded the graffiti was intended as a diversion. But what if it wasn’t?
This is the same year Operation Chances began — Victoria Police’s first serious effort to crack down on precursor chemical trafficking. It’s also two years after Alf Gay’s arrest for methamphetamine trafficking, an arrest made by none other than Ron Iddles.
Here’s where the puzzle gets stranger:
Norman Lee, the man Alf would later accuse of being Mr. Cruel, was Asian. Why would someone paint a racial slur that could implicate himself?
If the abduction were genuinely tied to Asian drug networks, why leave graffiti that draws attention to that fact?
And if it were someone with a grudge against Asian traffickers, could it have come from a rival — or someone on the other side of the drug war?
This single line of spray paint, once dismissed, now seems more significant when placed against the backdrop of what we know about informants, meth trafficking, and internal police corruption during that time.
Coincidence #4: Iddles Reviews the Chan Case — and Alf Suddenly Remembers a Secret
In the early 2000s, Ron Iddles says he was tasked with reviewing the Karmein Chan case — the most publicised of the Mr. Cruel abductions.
It was during this same period, Iddles claims, that he had a “friendly chat” with Alf Gay, a convicted armed robber and methamphetamine trafficker whom Iddles himself had arrested in 1989.
According to Iddles, Alf — completely unprompted — revealed that his old friend Norman Lee had once confessed to being Mr. Cruel.
Lee, who had died in 1992, allegedly told Alf he had a schoolgirl fetish, liked to cross-dress, and admitted to murdering Karmein Chan. Alf said Lee’s house in Eltham had a granny flat underneath, and that it matched what victims had described.
Except nothing about the story stacks up:
🔷️ Lee sold the house in the mid-1980s — before any of the abductions.
🔷️ Police and journalists who later inspected the home confirmed it didn’t match victim testimony.
🔷️ Lee’s family said they’d never heard of Alf Gay and had no idea who he was.
🔷️ Lee lived with his wife and daughter in that house.
Even Andrew Rule, who promoted the story, admitted the house didn’t match the details. The entire narrative falls apart under scrutiny — and that’s likely why police originally dismissed the tip after investigating it. Phyllis Chan, Karmein’s mother, was shown a photo of Norman Lee at the time. He was never treated as a serious suspect.
“I attended Eltham High for several years before our family moved back to Flemington. The school Records coukd be easily verified. My parents sold the Eltham house before any of the Mr. Cruel abductions. There was no granny flat, and the house did not match the descriptions given by the victims. My schoolmates had visited the home — they can confirm this too— We have never heard of Alf Gay.
Lee's daughter [2024]
And yet, Iddles claims he doesn’t know what happened to the tip — despite being a senior officer for years afterward.
Even more baffling: Iddles has publicly stated he believed Alf Gay had "no reason to lie." This is from a detective with decades of experience, who knows full well that career criminals often lie — especially when they want to deflect attention, protect themselves, or curry favour with police.
So why bring it back nearly two decades later?
And why believe Alf Gay — a known criminal with a long history of deception — when every verifiable detail of his story collapses under the slightest weight?
This wasn’t just a casual recollection. It was a calculated misdirection — and Ron Iddles carried it forward.
Coincidence #5: Operation HEMI and Operation CEJA – 2000–2001
By the turn of the millennium, corruption inside Victoria Police’s Drug Squad was no longer just rumour — it was being formally investigated.
In 2000, Operation HEMI was launched by the Ethical Standards Department (ESD) to expose illegal activity within the force, particularly among officers connected to the drug trade. By 2001, several high-ranking officers were arrested for trafficking commercial quantities of ecstasy. Over 50,000 pills were seized in one coordinated bust.
But that was only part of the story.
At the same time, Operation CEJA was uncovering even deeper rot: decades of systemic corruption, manipulation of evidence, abuse of informants, and a culture of cover-up. One of CEJA’s key whistleblowers, Detective Bill Patten, would later describe the internal resistance to clean-up efforts as hostile and dangerous, saying:
“There were times I genuinely feared for my safety."
Both investigations confirmed what many suspected — that informants were being used with no oversight, no records, and often to advance officers’ own careers.
So where does Alf Gay fit into this?
He was arrested for meth in 1989.
Operation Chances (targeting precursor suppliers) began in 1991.
And by 2000, the very officers involved in those operations were under investigation for corruption and chemical trafficking.
Now layer in this:
🔷️ In the early 2000s, Ron Iddles says he had a “friendly chat” with Alf Gay — the same man he arrested in ’89.
🔷️ And it just so happened that around that time, Iddles was reviewing the Karmein Chan case.
🔷️ During that chat, Alf delivers his story: he knows who Mr. Cruel is.
At the exact same time, the Drug Squad is falling apart. Corruption is being dragged into the light. And suddenly, a major crook like Alf — a man with deep underworld ties — is catching up with the top homicide cop in Victoria.
These are not isolated events. The timelines overlap too neatly. And Iddles’ lack of transparency about what happened next only raises more questions.
Coincidence #6 - Ron Iddles gives evidence to the Royal Commission into the Management of Police Informants (RCMPI)
13 Feb 2020– Ron Iddles gives evidence to the Royal Commission into the Management of Police Informants (RCMPI)
Ron Iddles was called to give evidence before the Royal Commission into the Management of Police Informants — the inquiry triggered by the Lawyer X scandal, which exposed the covert use of criminal barrister Nicola Gobbo as a police informant.
Iddles submitted his written statement in May 2019, but his in-person appearance took place on 13 February 2020.
This timing matters.
By this point, Iddles had already revived the Mr. Cruel tip in public for the first time — at the Australian True Crime LIVE event in June 2019. His statement to the Commission was submitted just weeks later.
Was the Alf Gay narrative brought forward deliberately during a time when police methods, informant management, and past misconduct were all under intense scrutiny? The timing raises uncomfortable questions — especially when one considers the tip came from a man who may well have been an informant himself.
And yet, Iddles — a senior homicide detective and former drug squad officer — made no effort to contextualise this information within what was known about Alf Gay’s criminal history or potential ties to Victoria Police.
Coincidence #7: The First Public Mention — While the Royal Commission Was Underway
June 2019: Ron Iddles appears live at the Australian True Crime LIVE event — and for the first time publicly discusses the tip he received from Alf Gay.
What makes this moment crucial isn’t just what was said — it’s when it was said.
June 2019 – Iddles submits his official statement to the Royal Commission into the Management of Police Informants (RCMPI).
So while Iddles was actively involved with the Commission — one focused on the misuse and mishandling of informants — he chooses that exact moment to begin drip-feeding a story he had held onto for nearly two decades.
A coincidence? Or controlled narrative timing?
🗞️ Media Note (2019):
In August 2019, 7News revealed that a former officer was blocked in 2005 from following an informant lead in the Mr. Cruel case — because the Lawyer X fallout took priority.
📰 Media Note:
In August 2019, 7News revealed that a former officer was blocked in 2005 from pursuing a promising informant lead in the Mr. Cruel case — because Victoria Police prioritized fallout from the Lawyer X scandal instead.
This article was published just two months after Ron Iddles publicly revived the Mr. Cruel story — and the same month he submitted his signed statement to the Royal Commission into Police Informants.
Coincidence #8: The Royal Commission Concludes — and the Story Surfaces Again
November 2020
The final report of the Royal Commission into the Management of Police Informants is released.
That same month, Ron Iddles appears in the Melbourne Marvels podcast. He once again tells the story of Alf Gay’s confession — repeating the claim that Norman Lee was Mr. Cruel.
But this time, there’s a notable shift in tone.
Iddles now says he doesn’t know what happened to the information he passed on to police after his early 2000s meeting with Alf.
He says he “just told the Spectrum Task Force” — a unit that had been disbanded by that time.
He gives no follow-up, despite remaining in the force for over a decade after receiving the tip.
It’s almost unbelievable:
Australia’s most respected homicide detective claims he received an apparent confession involving one of the country’s most infamous unsolved crimes — and he never followed it up, never checked in, never asked what happened next.
The timing is critical:
The final report from the RCMPI contains damaging revelations about Victoria Police’s use of informants. By re-airing this sensational story in November 2020 — just as that report hits — Iddles directs the public’s attention elsewhere.
Another coincidence?
📰 Media Note (2020):
In May 2020, The Sydney Morning Herald revealed that two judges had quietly handed police information during the original Mr. Cruel investigation.
This revelation was published just weeks before the Royal Commission into Police Informants concluded hearings.
Coincidence #9: Iddles files lawsuit against Vic Police — Phone taps and smear campaign
In May 2025, Ron Iddles filed a lawsuit against Victoria Police, claiming he was the target of a smear campaign — that his phone was tapped and his reputation undermined between November 2020 and May 2022.
Here’s what else happened during that exact window:
November 2020 – Iddles goes public on Melbourne Marvels, reviving an old, discredited lead about Mr. Cruel — a lead that had been dismissed two decades earlier.
May 2022 – Andrew Rule publishes an article naming Norman Lee as Mr. Cruel, citing Iddles’ story as fact.
That’s not coincidence.
While Iddles claims he was being smeared, he was actively feeding the media a false narrative — one that targeted a dead man who couldn’t respond, retraumatized victims’ families, and misled the public.
Summary: Too Many Coincidences
Ron Iddles is Australia’s most celebrated detective — sharp, methodical, and experienced enough to know when a story doesn’t add up.
He didn’t just revive the Alf Gay / Mr. Cruel story — he managed it. Carefully. Strategically
The timeline tells the real story:
Early 2000s – Iddles meets with Alf Gay while reviewing the Karmein Chan case. Gay makes his claim. It’s investigated and dismissed.
June 2019 – Iddles appears on Australian True Crime LIVE — the same month he signs his formal statement for the Royal Commission into Police Informants.
November 2020 – He resurfaces the Mr. Cruel claim on Melbourne Marvels, right as the Commission’s final report is released.
May 2022 – Andrew Rule publishes the story in the Herald Sun — within the exact window Iddles now says Victoria Police were conspiring against him (Nov 2020 – May 2022).
At the same time, buried stories begin resurfacing in the press:
In 2019, 7News reports a former officer was blocked from following a Mr. Cruel informant lead in 2005 due to the Lawyer X fallout.
In 2020, The Sydney Morning Herald reports that two judges shared confidential information in the early 1990s during efforts to catch Mr. Cruel.
Why were these old stories suddenly reappearing — just as Iddles was drip-feeding the media?
Ron Iddles isn’t some junior officer who got misled by a dying crook. He’s Australia’s most celebrated detective. He’s sharp, methodical, and experienced enough to know when a story doesn’t add up!